BRAZILIAN ELECTIONS

Lula leads at 39% and could win Brazilian elections in first round: poll

Brazil’s former president has been topping polls since April 2016

Ex-president Lula taking part in São Paulo rally in January / Ricardo Stuckert

With 39% of voting intention, Brazil’s ex-president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva maintains a comfortable lead among other presidential candidates for the country’s upcoming elections in October, according to a Vox Populi poll for the Unified Workers’ Central (Central Única dos Trabalhadores – CUT) released this Monday (28). Lula has been topping polls conducted by several different pollsters since April 2016.

Even though the former president is being held at the Federal Police headquarters in Curitiba for nearly two months, he is not only in the lead – if the elections were to happen today, according to the poll, he would be elected in the first round by a simple majority, as he maintains a 39 percent to 30 percent lead over all other candidates combined.

Voters who said they don't intend to vote for anyone or would cast a protest vote (21%) and voters who don’t know or chose not to answer to the poll (9%) also add up to 30 percent.

Handout: CUT/Vox Populi poll

Should there be a second round, according to the poll, Lula would win Brazil's presidential election against all major rivals: Marina Silva (45% over 14%), Jair Bolsonaro (47% over 16%), and Geraldo Alckmin (47% over 11%).

Methodology

The Vox Populi poll for CUT interviewed 2,000 people of all demographics, older than 16 years of age, residents of urban and rural areas in 121 cities in all states and the Federal District. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.2%, with 95% confidence interval.

Edition: Diego Sartorato