The World Bank’s announcement that Niger will be the fastest-growing economy in Africa in 2025 is viewed with caution by the historic leadership of the progressive camp in the Sahel country.
In a report published in mid-August, the Western financial institution stated that the Sahel country is expected to achieve an annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 14.4% this year, surpassing the previous historical record of 8.9% set in 2024.
The projection is based on results up to July and is impressive when compared to the past, when the country’s internal policies were still controlled by governments aligned with France, the former colonizer of this region of the African continent.
Mamane Adamou, leader of the Institute for Strategic Evaluation and Forecasting (Isep) in Niger, is skeptical about this growth expectation. For him, this is a natural movement after the end of sanctions imposed by the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) on the Sahel country.
“Of course, if we compare GDP under sanctions and current GDP, it is normal for the situation to be very favorable, because there are new prospects, there are expected resources that are very important, especially mineral and oil resources. In addition, there was a relatively good rainy season last year, and this year we expect even better. Therefore, for all these reasons, Niger’s GDP should grow,” Adamou said in an interview with BdF.
Sanctions in Niger
Niger is currently ruled by General Abdourahamane “Omar” Tchiani, leader of a progressive wing of the army that followed the people’s demand for a break with French neocolonial rule, which still exists today in the Sahel.
When the new military leader came to power on July 26, 2023, France mobilized 13 Ecowas member states for a military invasion of Niger, with the aim of reinstating the deposed president, Mohamed Bazoum.
Support from neighboring countries Burkina Faso and Mali enabled the country to successfully resist the attempt at destabilization, with the creation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). However, it was unable to avoid economic sanctions imposed by the economic bloc aligned with Paris.
One of the most visible effects of the economic blockade was the closure of the borders with Niger and Benin, which led to an increase in the price of products and foodstuffs, as well as power cuts and a shortage of medicines.
Popular support
Adamou believes that the synergy between the population and military leaders, which reached its peak during the expulsion of French soldiers from the country in December 2023, is now showing cracks. “Synergy is a strong word, there are disparities.”
But he assures that dissent and criticism come from an “intellectualized” middle class in the country. Support from the lower classes remains strong, which can be explained by the measures aimed at this population.
Since the National Council for the Safeguarding of the Homeland (CNSP) came to power, led by Tchiani, irrigated areas have expanded, especially in major agricultural regions such as Dosso and Tillabéri.
The reduction in prices is also visible. While a 25kg bag of rice cost between 16,000 and 20,000 CFA during the sanctions period, today it is available for “11,000 to 12,000,” according to farmer Salia Zirkifil, speaking to Peoples Dispatch.
Adamou also highlights Nigeria’s reduced dependence on electricity supplies, which has decreased significantly in Niamey but persists outside the capital.
“There has been an effort to allow people to have access to food at moderate prices in rural areas. Despite the difficulties, this has greatly contributed to reducing prices, and in addition, there is regulation,” explains Adamou.
He cites regulations on tuition fees for children in private schools and the prospect of rent price regulation. “This is in addition to the reduction in healthcare costs and efforts to enable women to benefit from free healthcare, such as those who are victims of obstetric violence. All of this shows consideration for important social issues that affect the working classes,” he adds.
Break with the World Bank
Adamou sees the World Bank’s announcement as a strategy to bring the institution closer to the countries of the Sahel, “to show that it is available and can help the country.” Currently, in Niger, the World Bank finances operations in the water, rural development, health, food, and climate risk management sectors.
According to the analyst, while the government is radically oriented toward breaking with the West, the country continues to maintain relations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. This, in the his opinion, “contradicts or undermines the optimization of all the benefits” that can be derived from the situation.
Adamou was one of the founders of the Revolutionary Organization for New Democracy (ORDN), a party founded in 1992 after the opening of multiparty politics in Niger, and recalls previous negative experiences with the World Bank.
In 1983, loans taken out by Seyni Kountché’s military regime resulted in debts that were only paid off in 2007.
“We spent several years, several decades, implementing measures without seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. That’s why we’re a little cautious. The World Bank cannot be a partner, despite all its announcements. They have this way of embellishing things, of showing that things will certainly be better with them,” he says.
Uranium mining
Among the most strategic resources for boosting Niger’s economy are its large uranium deposits, considered to be the highest quality in Africa. This resource was long a monopoly of France.
Until July 26, 2023, while the extracted uranium fueled French nuclear reactors, lighting a third of all lamps in the European country, more than 85% of Nigerians had no connection to the national power grid.
This inequality was explained by the country’s lack of access to its own mineral resources. While the French state-owned company Orano held a 63% stake in Somair, which exploited these deposits, the Nigerian state-owned company Sopamin was a minority shareholder.
When the CNSP suspended uranium exports to France, Orano halted production, which only resumed when the government nationalized Somair in June this year, taking control of Orano. Now, the challenge is to circumvent France’s financial embargo and make it possible to export the stored metal.
Adamou points out that the recent partnership with Russia for the exploration and civil nuclear use of uranium offers new prospects for sovereignty.
“This means that, through this country, we can find a market for our uranium and no longer be limited by anything,” he says. He also points out the impact of the favorable weather conditions in 2025 on the country’s economy. “As I said, the seasons, at least, were not confronted with droughts or massive attacks, so this year’s winter seasons are only floods, but not droughts. We believe we will have a good rainy season, and this will strengthen Niger’s GDP.”
Fighting terrorism
Amidst the financial siege, the challenges of expanding the economy and providing jobs conflict with the need for investment in security forces, which consume a large part of the state coffers.
Adamou highlights the significant change in the course of the war on terrorism in the triple border with Benin and Niger, which has required new defense and coordination strategies from the countries of the Alliance of Sahel States.
Cooperation with Russia and Turkey, focusing on satellite coverage and aerial surveillance, has been a path taken to inhibit the presence of jihadists, whose groups already use drones and other technologies to carry out attacks.
“When the three countries joined forces, there was an immediate reinforcement of their presence on the ground and it became impossible for jihadists to move from one country to another. They were pursued jointly. Now, terrorists have drones. They manipulate drones that explode in front of our troops. They are less and less recruited locally, but increasingly coming from outside. They are professionals from Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq, and even some who came from Ukraine. Therefore, the method has changed, and our states also need to change their methods,” Adamou analyzes.
“The problem of insecurity is something that was created to prevent our countries from moving forward. To build sovereignty, you need to have a certain serenity,” he assesses.
