President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers’ Party) is leading all first- and second-round scenarios in Brazil’s 2026 presidential elections, according to a new opinion poll published by the research institute Quaest this Thursday (18).
The left-wing leader appears ahead of all other political figures in simulated matchups, including former president Jair Bolsonaro, far-right congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro, São Paulo governor Tarcísio de Freitas, Senator Michelle Bolsonaro, Governor Romeu Zema, Governor Ratinho Júnior, Governor Ronaldo Caiado, Governor Eduardo Leite, and former minister and perennial presidential candidate Ciro Gomes.
The findings show stability compared to the previous Quaest survey. In July, Lula and Tarcísio were statistically tied within the margin of error, but the new data confirms Lula’s lead in all configurations.
The poll surveyed 2,004 Brazilians aged 16 and older, between September 12 and 14. It has a 95% confidence level and a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
Most Brazilians don’t want Lula nor Bolsonaro to run again
Despite Lula’s position as frontrunner, the majority of Brazilians (59%) said they believe he should not seek reelection. Only 39% support a new term. Rejection of Bolsonaro’s potential candidacy is even stronger: 76% say he should not run again, while just 16% support it. Bolsonaro is currently barred from running for public office following a Supreme Court conviction for attempting to undermine the 2022 elections.
First-round scenarios
Lula vs. Bolsonaro
Lula (PT): 32%
Jair Bolsonaro (PL): 24%
Ciro Gomes (PDT): 11%
Ratinho Jr. (PSD): 8%
Romeu Zema (Novo): 5%
Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil): 4%
Undecided: 5%
Blank/Null/Non-voters: 11%
Lula vs. Tarcísio de Freitas
Lula (PT): 35%
Tarcísio (Republicans): 17%
Ciro Gomes (PDT): 13%
Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil): 6%
Romeu Zema (Novo): 5%
Undecided: 6%
Blank/Null/Non-voters: 18%
Lula vs. Michelle Bolsonaro
Lula: 33%
Michelle Bolsonaro (PL): 18%
Ciro Gomes: 13%
Ratinho Jr.: 8%
Romeu Zema: 6%
Ronaldo Caiado: 5%
Undecided: 5%
Blank/Null/Non-voters: 12%
Lula vs. Eduardo Bolsonaro
Lula: 32%
Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL): 14%
Ciro Gomes: 14%
Ratinho Jr.: 10%
Romeu Zema: 6%
Ronaldo Caiado: 5%
Undecided: 6%
Blank/Null/Non-voters: 13%
Three-way: Lula, Tarcísio, Eduardo Bolsonaro
Lula: 40%
Tarcísio: 20%
Eduardo Bolsonaro: 16%
Undecided: 5%
Blank/Null/Non-voters: 19%
Three-way: Lula, Eduardo Bolsonaro, Ratinho Jr.
Lula: 40%
Eduardo Bolsonaro: 21%
Ratinho Jr.: 16%
Undecided: 5%
Blank/Null/Non-voters: 18%
Three-way: Lula, Eduardo Bolsonaro, Zema
Lula: 42%
Eduardo Bolsonaro: 21%
Romeu Zema: 13%
Undecided: 5%
Blank/Null/Non-voters: 19%
Three-way: Lula, Eduardo Bolsonaro, Caiado
Lula: 43%
Eduardo Bolsonaro: 21%
Ronaldo Caiado: 12%
Undecided: 5%
Blank/Null/Non-voters: 19%
Second-round scenarios
Lula vs. Bolsonaro
Lula: 47%
Bolsonaro: 34%
Undecided: 2%
Blank/Null/Non-voters: 17%
Lula vs. Ciro Gomes
Lula: 40%
Ciro Gomes: 33%
Undecided: 3%
Blank/Null/Non-voters: 24%
Lula vs. Tarcísio de Freitas
Lula: 43%
Tarcísio: 35%
Undecided: 3%
Blank/Null/Non-voters: 19%
Lula vs. Ratinho Jr.
Lula: 44%
Ratinho Jr.: 32%
Undecided: 3%
Blank/Null/Non-voters: 21%
Lula vs. Romeu Zema
Lula: 45%
Zema: 32%
Undecided: 4%
Blank/Null/Non-voters: 19%
Lula vs. Michelle Bolsonaro
Lula: 47%
Michelle: 32%
Undecided: 3%
Blank/Null/Non-voters: 18%
Lula vs. Ronaldo Caiado
Lula: 46%
Caiado: 31%
Undecided: 3%
Blank/Null/Non-voters: 20%
Lula vs. Eduardo Bolsonaro
Lula: 47%
Eduardo Bolsonaro: 29%
Undecided: 3%
Blank/Null/Non-voters: 21%
Lula vs. Eduardo Leite
Lula: 45%
Eduardo Leite: 26%
Undecided: 4%
Blank/Null/Non-voters: 25%
