Brazil: Lula would win in first round if elections were held today, poll says

Legal battle to release ex-president on July 8th may have helped swing voters decide to vote for Lula, sociologist says

São Paulo |
Survey shows Lula would win in all scenarios
Survey shows Lula would win in all scenarios - Ricardo Stuckert

Held at the Federal Police headquarters in Curitiba for more than 100 days, Brazil’s ex-president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva remains at the top of polls for voters in the country’s upcoming elections. That’s what the CUT/Vox Populi voting intention survey, conducted on July 18th through 20th, shows.

Lula voting intention stands at 41 percent when respondents voted on predefined answers including all presidential candidates. The previous Vox Populi poll, from May, saw the former president on 39 percent.

All other candidates combined stand at 29 percent in July, according to the pollster, which released the latest survey this Thursday. If the election were today, ex-president Lula would be elected in the first round.

Conducted after July 8th, when two injunctions issued by a TRF4 appeals court judge to release Lula were challenged, the poll shows voting intentions for the Workers’ Party candidate have increased in all scenarios, regardless of who his rivals are.

Sociologist and director of pollster OMA Pesquisa Marisol Recaman says that, more than just numbers, the poll indicates hope is growing among voters since July 8th. “Unlike what it would seem, Lula voters were feeling that Lula could not run, and after July 8th they went back to their original candidate,” she analyzes.

Respondents who said they don't intend to vote for anyone or would cast a protest vote add up to 18 percent. In May, they represented 21 percent of voters.

Second place, with virtually a third of Lula’s voting intention, is far-right congressman Jair Bolsonaro, who stands at 12 percent, followed by centrist Ciro Gomes, who has 5 percent of voting intention. Center-right candidate Marina Silva’s voting intention dropped from 6 to 4 percent, and now she is tied with right-wing candidate Geraldo Alckmin, who also has 4 percent of voters. Other candidates stand at 1 percent or less.

In simulated second round scenarios, Lula is also comfortably ahead of all rivals, ranging from 50 to 52 percent of voters.

Edited by: Diego Sartorato | Translated by Aline Scátola