2018 Elections

Brazil's Lula keeps lead and could win in the first round: polls

Former president could transfer up to 27 percent of votes to now running mate Haddad if he is barred from election

Though the Workers’ Party has been persecuted by the judicial system, the party is the one to beat in October elections / Marize Muniz – CUT Nacional

Brazil’s ex-president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, from the Workers’ Party (PT), has 37 percent of voter support for the upcoming presidential election in Oct. 7. The poll by Ibope is one of three surveys released on Monday showing the jailed former president in the lead – polls by Estadão/Ipsos and CNT/MDA also indicate that Lula could win in the first round and is the front-runner beating any contenders in a possible second round.

Ibope showed far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro in second, with 18 percent of voting intention, center-right Marina Silva with 6 percent, and both centrist Ciro Gomes and right-wing Geraldo Alckmin with 5 percent.

The pollster interviewed 2,002 voters between Aug. 14 and 16, estimating a 95 percent confidence level. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points.

The institute also tested a possible scenario excluding Lula, having former São Paulo mayor and now Lula’s running mate Fernando Haddad as the head of the Workers’ Party ticket. Haddad has 4 percent of voting intention, but 13 percent of voters said they would “definitely” vote for him if Lula is out of the race, while 14 percent said they “could vote” for him, placing Haddad in second in the poll, with potential to reach 27 percent. Alckmin, a former São Paulo governor, has 7 percent, Gomes has 9 percent, and Silva, 12 percent.

The results are consistent with what Haddad told a Brazilian network, Rede Bandeirantes, about it being unlikely that the Workers’ Party will not make it to the second round of the presidential election. “Alckmin’s rates will only grow if Bolsonaro’s rates fall,” he argued.

Edition: Rede Brasil Atual