Former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers' Party) has 47% of voting intentions in the new survey Datafolha, released on Thursday (28). This places Lula 5 points ahead of the sum of all his opponents, which puts him in a position to win in the first round.
President Jair Bolsonaro (Liberal Party) positively swung one point, reaching 29%. Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labor Party) remains in third place with 8%. Simone Tebet (Brazilian Democratic Movement) reached 2%, while Pablo Marçal (Republican Party of Social Order), André Janones (Avante), and Vera Lúcia (United Socialist Workers' Party) scored 1%. The other candidates did not score. 6% voted blank or null, while 3% were undecided.
In the spontaneous poll, Lula leads with 38%, followed by Bolsonaro with 26%, Ciro Gomes with 3%, and Tebet with 1%.
Datafolha poll interviewed 2,556 people through a personal approach on July 27 and 28. This poll is registered in Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court under the identification code BR-01192/2022. The margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points.
The young vote
This Wednesday, July 27, Datafolha also released a poll made with 935 voters between 16 and 29 years old on July 20 and 21 in the cities of São Paulo, Rio e Janeiro, Belo Horizonte, Salvador Fortaleza, Recife, Porto Alegre, Curitiba, Goiânia, Brasília, Manaus, and Belém.
Among young voters, Lula has 51% of voter support, and Jair Bolsonaro has only 20%, followed by Ciro Gomes, with 12%.
In Brazil, voting is optional for teenagers who are 16 or 17. In this year’s election, this population amounts to 2,116,781 million people fit to vote. This number corresponds to voters who will be 16 or 17 on October 2, the day the first round of the Brazilian elections will happen.
Compared to the 2018 elections, there was a rise of 51.13% of voters in this age group. In recent months, a campaign started by the Superior Electoral Court and supported by many artists has stimulated young people to get their voter cards, consequently increasing this base of voters. Furthermore, Brazil’s Electoral Justice presented the option of getting a new voter card quickly via the internet.
Poll focusing on teenagers and young people from capital cities
Former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is heading the polls among teenagers and young voters who live in the country’s capital cities, according to a Datafolha survey released this Wednesday, July 27. The leftist candidate has 51% of voter support among people between 16 and 19 years old in 12 Brazilian capital cities. Jair Bolsonaro has only 20%, and Ciro Gomes, 12% of voter suppor.
Ciro is followed by André Janones, with 2%. Simone Tebet, Vera Lúcia, Pablo Marçal, Leonardo Péricles (Popular Unit), and Sofia Manzano (Brazilian Communist Party) amount to 1% of voter support together. Eymael (Christian Democracy Party), Luciano Bivar (Union Brazil), General Santos Cruz (Podemos) and Felipe D’Ávila (New Party) did not reach 1% of the votes.
When interviewees were not presented with candidates to choose, Lula was the first option for 41% of the voters, while 17% said they would vote for Bolsonaro, and 3% said they would go for Ciro.
In a second round between Lula and Bolsonaro, the Worker’s Party candidate would get 61% of the votes, while 27% of the young voters would support Bolsonaro. In this scenario, 52% of those interviewees who said they would vote for Ciro in the first round would support former President Lula in the second round. Only 25% of Ciro young supporters would go for Bolsonaro in a second round.
When separating voters by gender, Lula wins in the male and female electorate but his largest percentage is among women. Among men, Lula has 44% of voter support, Bolsonaro has 24%, and Ciro, 14%. Among female voters, Lula reaches 58% and Bolsonaro 16%, while Ciro has only 10%.
Lula is defeated by Bolsonaro only among young evangelical voters: 36% of them choose Bolsonaro and 30% go for Lula.
As regards rejection rates, Bolsonaro is on the top, with 67% of young voters refusing to vote for him in any scenario. In contrast, 32% would not vote for Lula, and 22% do not consider voting for Ciro Gomes.
The poll interviewed 935 voters on July 20 and 21 in the cities of São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte, Salvador Fortaleza, Recife, Porto Alegre, Curitiba, Goiânia, Brasília, Manaus, and Belém. The margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points. The poll is registered in Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court under the number 05688/2022
Previous Datafolha poll
In the previous Datafolha poll, with 2,556 people interviewed on June 22 and 23, Lula had 47% of voter support, and Bolsonaro had 28%. Ciro Gomes was in the third position with 8%, followed by André Janones with 2%, and Simone Tebet, Pablo Marçal, and Vera Lúcia tied with 1% of voter support each. The other candidates did not reach 1% of voter support. Voters who would choose none of the candidates mentioned or opt for a protest vote, known in Brazil as “voto nulo”, amounts to 7%. Voters who did not know what to choose or had chosen not to share their opinions on voting were 4% of the total number of interviewees.
In the spontaneous poll, Lula had 37%, Bolsonaro 25%, and Ciro had 3%. All other candidates totaled 3%.
Edited by: Flávia Chacon