A new survey made by Quaest institute, released on Thursday (17), showed that Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers’ Party) has an advantage over possible re-election in 2026. In simulated scenarios for the first and second rounds, Lula is ahead of all his opponents.
In the first round, the president maintains a comfortable lead over the names the institute tested, including against former President Jair Bolsonaro (Liberal Party), who remains ineligible until 2030. If the two were to face off today, Lula would have 32% of votes, against 26% for Bolsonaro. In a scenario against former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro (Liberal Party), Lula would have 30%, against 19% for her.
Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), the current São Paulo governor, has 15%, against 32% for Lula. Eduardo Bolsonaro (Liberal Party), one of Bolsonaro’s sons and who is also quoted by the right to the 2026 presidential elections, comes in with 31%, against 51% for Lula.
Only in the second round does Lula’s lead diminish, virtually tied with Tarcísio de Freitas, who also appears as the name most supported by voters to replace Bolsonaro in the election, with 15% approval to run. Even so, the tie is within the margin of error: 41% for Lula and 37% for Tarcísio.
Although the majority of those interviewed still declared themselves opposed to Lula’s candidacy in the next presidential elections, this percentage fell from 66% to 58%. On the other hand, the group of those who believe that the president should run again grew from 32% to 38% between May and July 2025.
The poll interviewed 2,004 people between July 10 and 14. The margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points.
Response to the Trump tariffs
In a poll released on Wednesday (16), the same institute assessed voters’ perception of Lula’s response to tariffs Donald Trump, U.S. president, imposed on Brazilian products.
The poll indicated that actions in the name of Brazil’s sovereignty boosted the president’s popularity, which has reached the best government rating in the last 12 months.
In addition, 57% of those interviewed said they believed Trump should not give an opinion or interfere in the case in which Bolsonaro is a defendant, which was used as a justification for the tariffs.
