The first round of Bolivia’s elections confirmed the strength of conservative forces and the absence of the left from the presidential race, unprecedented in the last two decades. With nearly all votes counted, Rodrigo Paz, of the Christian Democratic Party, and Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, of the Alianza Libre coalition, secured 32.1% and 26.8% respectively, advancing to the run-off on October 19. Both represent a return of traditional and conservative elites opposed to the political transformation launched by former president Evo Morales in 2006.
Rodrigo Paz, who finished first in popular prefference, is relatively new to the national stage but carries strong political heritage. He is the son of Jaime Paz Zamora, Bolivia’s president in the 1990s, a period marked by austerity and privatization policies. Paz built his career as a senator for Tarija, in the south of the country, and gained prominence presenting himself as a voice of renewal, despite his close ties to traditional political families.
Paz’s lead in the first round, surpassing businessman Samuel Doria Medina, considered the frontrunner until days before the election, surprised Bolivians. Despite his modernizing discourse, Paz supports orthodox economic policies and seeks alliances with business elites in Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Bolivia’s economic hub. His proposals diverge from the popular and Indigenous agendas that characterized the process of change since 2006. He positions himself as a center-right alternative to Tuto Quiroga’s more hardline stance.
Ex-ally of a dictator
Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga has a long political trajectory linked to Bolivia’s economic elite. He served as vice president under Hugo Banzer, a former military dictator who ruled the country twice and assumed the presidency from 2001 to 2002 after Banzer’s resignation. During his short tenure, Quiroga implemented neoliberal reforms including market liberalization and privatizations in line with International Monetary Fund (IMF) prescriptions. Despite political wear, he has remained a constant figure in opposition to the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) over the last two decades.
Over the years, Quiroga consolidated a conservative profile closely aligned with the United States. He defended policies criminalizing social movements and maintained close relations with Washington. These positions made him one of Evo Morales’ main rivals, clashing repeatedly with the former president in recent history.
Evo Morales’ shadow
At the center of this new political scenario remains Evo Morales. Barred from running and denouncing judicial persecution, Morales campaigned for the null vote, which reached 19.3%, the highest in Bolivia’s history. His enduring influence, street presence, and ability to mobilize popular sectors continue to weigh heavily on the political landscape, introducing instability even in an electoral contest now dominated by conservative forces.
