Brazil and India, the two countries most heavily impacted by U.S. trade sanctions, are intensifying bilateral relations in a bid to mitigate the economic consequences of recent tariff hikes under Donald Trump.
In April, Trump announced a new round of import tariffs. Initially, Brazil faced a 10% rate and India 25%, but by late July, both were hit with a dramatic increase to 50%. The move followed Trump’s attempts to pressure Brazil’s judiciary into shielding former president Jair Bolsonaro from criminal accountability, and to punish India for purchasing Russian oil, despite the fact that most nations, including Brazil, continue to import from Russia.
“The partnership with India is strategic at a time of protectionism,” said Fernanda Nanci, a scholar in International Relations at the State University of Rio de Janeiro (Uerj). “India offers major opportunities in food and energy markets. It’s a populous country with over a billion people concerned with food security. And Brazil’s agribusiness, heavily impacted by the U.S., can benefit.”
On the Indian side, pharmaceutical and technology exports are seen as key areas to expand into the Brazilian market. Yet, analysts caution that neither country can fully replace the scale of trade with the United States.
Brics cooperation and strategic missions
To respond to the sanctions, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva sought support from fellow Brics countries. Chinese President Xi Jinping reaffirmed China’s willingness to defend Brazil’s sovereignty and legitimate interests. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke with Lula the day after the U.S. tariff announcement, pledging to deepen cooperation and boost trade flows.
Bilateral trade between India and Brazil reached about US$ 12 billion in 2024, with a surplus in India’s favor. Brazil hopes to expand that significantly, with more than 70 trade missions to India since 2023, aiming to surpass US$ 20 billion by 2030.
Strategic sectors include agriculture (notably genetic technology exchange), pharmaceuticals, and energy. Brazil exports crude oil to India and imports refined products. With a young and growing population nearing 1.5 billion, India is currently the world’s fourth largest economy and is projected to become the third largest by 2032, increasing its demand for fossil fuels.
“India’s rising per capita income may lead to higher consumption of Brazilian goods like coffee,” said Giorgio Romano Schutte, a professor of International Relations at the Federal University of ABC (UFABC). He notes that even before Trump’s sanctions, cooperation was growing within platforms like Brics and Mercosur.
“Now, with protectionism intensifying, there’s even more reason to invest in economic complementarities between Brazil and India,” Schutte said.
South-South strategy
For Nanci, deeper integration among Global South countries could provide collective leverage. “We face similar challenges and can advocate for shared causes – including at the World Trade Organization (WTO) – to pressure the U.S. and open new international fronts.”
Schutte agrees that Brazil will likely expand its engagement with Asian markets. Vice President and Minister of Industry, Trade and Services Geraldo Alckmin is expected to travel to New Delhi in October, while President Lula is set to visit India in early 2026 in response to Modi’s recent state visit to Brazil.
