President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s approval rating has climbed to 46%, its highest level since January, according to a Genial/Quaest poll released this Wednesday (20). Disapproval dropped to 51%. This increase in approval was consistent across all regions and income groups, with a notable seven point jump in the Northeast. Support was strongest among low-income Brazilians, with approval among those earning up to two minimum wages (around US$480/month) rising from 46% to 55%.
Although nearly half of Brazilians (46%) still believe the economy worsened over the past year, that perception has declined steadily from 56% in March. Meanwhile, reports of food price increases fell sharply —from 88% in March to 60% this month— reflecting a relief felt by households. However, 55% of respondents indicated that finding work has become more difficult, compared to 46% in March.
Trump’s tariff hike sparks nationalist sentiment
The poll also captured strong reactions to U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian exports. A majority of Brazilians (53%) believe this measure was driven by political or personal interests rather than economics. Nearly 70% think Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro, who lobbied for the tariff in Washington, acted out of personal interest.
By contrast, 49% see Lula as defending Brazil’s interests in the dispute, while 71% disapprove of Trump’s decision. Most respondents (67%) favor negotiation as the solution, though 26% call for reciprocal tariffs.
Analysts: food prices and foreign policy drive approval
Political scientists and economists interviewed by BdF argue that Lula’s rising approval is tied both to falling food inflation and to perceptions of sovereignty in the tariff standoff. Analyst Mayra Goular, from the Institute of Political and Social Studies at Rio de Janeiro State University (IESP/UERJ), observed that the government regained support in its “most loyal base,” particularly among women and low-income groups, who are directly affected by food costs. Unlike wealthier or more ideologically polarized demographics, these voters often assess governments based on their purchasing power and ability to provide for their families. This segment registered a jump in approval from 46% to 55% in just one month.
Economist Renato Eliseu Costa, from the School of Sociology and Politics of São Paulo (FESPSP), added that beyond transient shifts, multiple surveys show a trend: Lula’s disapproval fell from 57% in May to 51% in August. He highlighted that improvements in employment, poverty reduction, and the symbolic removal of Brazil from the UN Hunger Map are critical to understanding why the government has consolidated approval among its working-class supporters.
Despite concerns that Trump’s tariffs lead to higher food prices (64% of respondents expect higher costs), 48% believe Lula and the Workers’ Party are handling the dispute better than the Bolsonaro camp. According to analysts, the public largely interpreted Eduardo Bolsonaro’s role as self-serving, thereby strengthening Lula’s image as a defender of national sovereignty.
Together, these factors help explain why the president’s approval consistently rose across different regions and income brackets, suggesting a combination of economic relief and nationalist sentiment as key drivers of the government’s improved standing.
