Lula leads over Bolsonaro by 23 points in run-off 2022 presidential polls

According to Datafolha, the former president is also ahead of Moro and Doria, winning the race in all scenarios

Translated by: Julia Abdalla

Brasil de Fato | São Paulo |
Lula would win the 2022 run-offs against Bolsonaro - Foto: Ricardo Stuckert

A survey published by Datafolha on Wednesday, May 12, shows former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, of the Worker’s Party (PT), winning the 2022 elections for the Presidency in the 2nd round run-off. Lula, who had his political rights restored around two months ago, received 55% of the intended votes, against 32% for the current president, Jair Bolsonaro (no party).  

The former president’s advantage is not as wide at the beginning of the race, though. In the 1st round, the poll indicates that Lula would receive 41% of the votes, while 23% would vote for the army colonel. They are followed by the former minister and judge, Sérgio Moro (no party), who has 7% of the voting intentions, former minister Ciro Gomes (PDT), with 6%, and the TV host Luciano Huck (no party), with 4%.  

The governor of the state of São Paulo, João Dória (PSDB), has 3% of the voting intentions and is followed by former health minister Luiz Henrique Mandetta (DEM) and the businessman João Amoedo (Novo party), each with 2% of the intended votes. 

Blank and invalid votes, along with those who claimed they will not vote for any candidate, account for 9% of the respondents. 4% of the participants in the poll said they still don’t know who they will vote for next year. 

In projected scenarios for the run-offs, Lula wins the race with 53% against Moro, who would have the votes of 33%. The former president also wins against Dória, with a margin of 57% to 21%. While the poll indicated a Bolsonaro-versus-Dória run-off scenario as technically a tie, with the president receiving 39% of the votes against 40% to the governor, Bolsonaro loses the race for Ciro, with 36% of the votes against 48% of the former minister. 

The survey was carried out with 2,071 people, in person, in 146 cities, between May 11 and 12. The margin of error is two percentage points. 

Edited by: Morillo Carvalho