Bolsonaro’s popularity drops under 20% for the first time since January 2019

The government administration’s approval rating reaches the worst level since the beginning of the historical series

Translated by: Ana Paula Rocha

Brasília (DF) |
A survey shows that only 19% evaluate the federal government's management positively - Evaristo Sa / AFP

President Jair Bolsonaro’s (non-party) approval ratings fell and reached the worst level since the beginning of his term. The data are from the Atlas research working in partnership with the newsgroup Valor Econômico published this Monday (29).

The survey points out that just 19% assess the federal government administration as good, the worst number ever recorded since the beginning of the historical series, in the first month of Bolsonaro’s term, in January 2019.

On the previous survey, published in September this year, the positive rate was 24%. In May, it was 31%. Since then, Bolsonaro’s popularity dropped consecutively in the surveys, which are made every two months.

The disapproval rate, in its turn, remained at 60%, and another 20% began to see the government’s performance as fair; that group was 14% in the previous survey.

When asked about what they consider Brazil’s worst problem currently, 21.4% of the interviewees said it’s corruption, and 19.3% said it’s poverty and social inequality. Inflation and the increase in prices are the third answer in the list, with 16.7%.

Unemployment and the country’s economic stagnation also had their place among the problems listed by Brazil’s population, with 6.8% and 6.5%, respectively.

Bolsonaro’s disapproval rate also reached the highest level recorded: 65% of the interviewees said they disapproved of the work of the former captain. The percentage is the same recorded in May last year when he had the worst rate so far.

The Atlas survey asked 4,921 people online between 23 and 26 September this year. The margin of error is one percentage point, and the confidence rate is 95%.

PoderData also showed Bolsonaro’s approval rating in a historic low record

The melting of Bolsonaro was also recorded by a PoderData survey released last week. The survey shows that the portion of the Brazilian population that considers the president's performance to be “very good” or “good” was at a historic low and reached 22%. The negative variation was 2 percentage points compared to the survey carried out 15 days earlier.

Bolsonaro's assessment numbers place the president in his worst ratings since April 2020, when the PoderData historic series began. The difference between those who think the chief of the executive is “very good” or “good” and “poor” or “very poor” is now 35 percentage points. In the last survey, it was 33.

Bolsonaro melts, Moro takes off and Lula remains leading polls

Last week, the release of three electoral pools stirred up the race for the presidency in 2022. The surveys carried out by Paraná Pesquisas, PoderData and Ipespe showed the consolidation of Lula in the lead and the tendency of Bolsonaro to fall.

The surveys show that the former Minister of Justice and former federal judge Sergio Moro (Podemos Party), the judge who was in charge of Operation Car Wash, is still fighting for third place with Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labor Party). However, the result points that they both are still considerably distant of Lula and Bolsoraro in the electorate’s preference.

On Monday (22), Paraná Pesquisas, the only institute that still showed a virtual tie between Lula and Bolsonaro, published a new survey with the Workers Party (PT) ahead of the current president, with more than 5 percentage points of advantage. The PT varies from 34.9% to 35.8%, and Bolsonaro varies from 29.2% to 30.1%.

Carried out in June, the previous survey showed Lula's growth trend, but had not captured the PT's overtaking of Bolsonaro. It was later detected by DataFolha, PoderData, and Ipec. In June, Lula scored 34.6%, and the current president, 36.9%. Moro, tested for the first time by Paraná Pesquisas, had 10.7%.

The trend was confirmed by the new results released by PoderData on Thursday (25) and by Ipespe this Friday (26). The Power360 Survey Division showed stability when compared with the survey carried out at the end of October, with Lula between 34% and 36%, and Bolsonaro between 27% and 30%.

A month ago, Moro fluctuated between 7% and 8%. Since then, the former federal judge has joined the Podemos Party, held a campaign act in Brasília, and received intense coverage from the main media outlets. The strategy, however, has yet to yield results. Now, PoderData shows that he remains inert with 8% in any scenario, still virtually tied with Ciro (7% to 9%).

In the survey carried out by Ipespe, none presidency candidate oscillated above the margin of error (3.2 percentage points). Moro fluctuated positively three points, from 8% to 11%, and Bolsonaro, negatively, from 28% to 25%.

In the second round, two of the three surveys indicated that the former judge is the candidate immediately behind Lula. The PT's victory over Moro is by 51% to 34%, according to Ipespe, and by 48% to 31%, according to PoderData.

Edited by: Vivian Virissimo