In the first half of the year, China exported almost three times more than it imported from the United States. Exports from China to the U.S. totaled 1.55 trillion yuan, equivalent to US$1.2 trillion, while imports from the U.S. to China totaled 530.35 billion yuan, just over US$41 billion.
In other words, China once again had a trade surplus with the U.S. of 1.019 trillion yuan (US$170 billion).
The round of tariffs, which reached its highest levels with China (145%), was created with the stated goal of “rectifying trade practices that contribute to large and persistent annual United States goods trade deficits.”
This purpose is stated in the name of Trump’s executive order that created the so-called “reciprocal tariffs.” After the May rounds of negotiations, mutual tariffs were reduced to 10%.
However, Trump later stated that the total tariffs on China would remain at 55%, adding 20% imposed due to the “fentanyl issue” — the U.S. blames the Chinese for the entry into the country of substances used in the production of opioids — and another 25% previously imposed.
The China-U.S. trade surplus for the first half of this year actually represents a decline compared to the same period in 2024, when the trade surplus was 1.14 trillion yuan (US$170 billion). In other words, there was a variation of -10.61%.
However, China’s performance in the first semester of 2025 shows a reality far removed from that announced or described by the U.S. president.
In May, Trump said China was “doing very badly.” Shortly thereafter, when announcing his first conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping, the U.S. leader changed his tone. “We’re not looking to hurt China. China has been hurt very badly. They were closing factories, they were having a lot of unrest. And they were very happy to be able to do something with us,” he said.
Economist Ding Yifang told BdF that China’s retaliation played a role in reducing Chinese exports to the U.S.
“China has tightened control over rare earth exports to the U.S., which has caused many problems in the U.S. manufacturing industry, especially in the automaker sector,” explains Ding, who is a senior researcher at the Taihe Institute.
The economist also notes that trade resumed growth in June, following the easing of restrictions on rare earth exports from China to the U.S. and the ban on semiconductor sales to the Asian country, as a result of negotiations between the two governments in London.
According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s exports to the United States in June increased by 5.8% compared to the same month last year, and by one percentage point compared to May. After a decline in May (-3.4%), imports resumed growth, reaching 1.1% in June compared to the same month last year.
It is still too early to say that the tariff hike has failed to achieve its goal of balancing exports and imports with China. However, considering that the tariff reduction allowed for the resumption of bilateral trade in June and, on the other hand, that the agreements do not bring new concessions from the Chinese side (at least as far as is publicly known), there seems to be no reason to expect a different scenario at the end of this year.
Trade decline with the U.S. offset by market diversification
Trade between the two countries declined in the first half of 2025. Chinese imports from the United States fell 7.7% and Chinese exports to the U.S. plummeted 9.9%.
The figures were driven by a significant year-on-year decline in trade in the second quarter: a drop of 20.8%.
This decline in trade with the U.S. was, to some extent, offset by China’s two main trading partners: the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the European Union (EU).
In 2020, ASEAN became China’s main trading partner, surpassing the U.S. and the EU. In the first six months of 2025, ASEAN accounted for 16.8% of China’s total foreign trade (3.67 trillion yuan, approximately US$560 billion). Exports increased by 14.3% and imports by 2.3%.
In the case of the EU, China’s second main trading partner, there was an increase in trade volume (3.5%) totaling 2.82 trillion yuan (US$310 billion), representing 12.9% of the total.
China’s total imports fell 2.7%, partly driven by a sharp 20.8% drop in trade volume with the United States in the second quarter of 2024.
China’s exports in general grew by 7.2%. China’s overall trade with BRICS countries also increased.
In the first half of this year, China’s imports and exports with other BRICS members and partner countries reached 6.11 trillion yuan (about US$870 billion), an increase of 3.9% over the previous year, said Lyu Daliang, head of the Statistics and Analysis Department of the General Administration of Customs, at a press conference last week.
The domestic consumption element in China’s growth
Increased trade with other countries and regions was an important factor in China’s economic performance in the first half of 2025, but domestic demand was the main driver of growth.
Consumption was the main highlight. The Chinese government continued with a strategy launched in 2024 to promote consumption, which is the Action Plan to Promote the Exchange of Consumer Goods.
According to data from the Ministry of Finance, the central government allocated 81 billion yuan (US$12.5 billion) to this campaign.
The program offers subsidies of up to 20% for people to exchange appliances, vehicles, and other products for newer, more energy-efficient models.
The Chinese Minister of Commerce, Wang Wentao, said the exchange program generated more than 2.9 trillion yuan (US$320 billion) in sales revenue from January to June this year, “benefiting about 400 million participants through subsidies and various incentives.”
